Geçiş bölgelerini hesaba katan model, Thwaites Buzulu tahminlerini netleştiriyor

Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica is a major source of global sea level rise, but its complex processes have made long-term forecasts difficult. A study that appeared in Nature Communications on 12 October used a computer model built by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory with the University of California, Irvine, and Dartmouth College. It suggests that by the end of this century the glacier could add more to sea level than some earlier estimates, and in some simulations its contribution reached double current projections. The key change concerns where ice stops resting on land and starts floating. Most ice sheet models draw this as a sharp boundary, a grounding line. The new model treats it as a grounding zone, where seawater pushes several miles under the grounded ice and tides lift it, bringing warmer water that speeds melting and destabilises the glacier. This made its fit to satellite records since the 1990s four times better than that of models lacking it.