İklim sığınakları alacalı kurbağalara daha güvenli bir dönüş sağlayabilir

A fungal disease called chytridiomycosis has devastated amphibians and pushed many harlequin toads towards extinction. Releasing captive-bred animals has often failed because the fungus remains widespread in their former habitat. Researchers and their partners therefore used models of temperature, humidity and seasonal disease severity to map climatic refuges in Panama. These are places suitable for frogs but frequently unsuitable for medium or high-intensity fungal infection. Most surviving harlequin toad species were found only where more than 80 percent of seasons restricted severe disease, supporting the model’s value for ranking possible release sites. One species was an exception, which is consistent with evidence that it may have evolved resistance. The maps can also guide searches for overlooked wild populations whose genes could strengthen managed groups. Some risky areas may become less favourable to the fungus as the climate changes, although warming could harm cool-adapted mountain frogs. Field surveys and future release trials will test whether the predicted refuges genuinely improve survival.